Georgia vs Auburn : Georgia is one of the highest-scoring teams in the country – and it doesn’t just rely on touchdowns. The Bulldogs have the second-most field goals (15) of any team ranked in the top 25 in points per game, and the second-most field goals (11) of any team in the top 20 in red zone efficiency.
Auburn has done well to limit teams inside their own 20-yard line, holding opponents to a paltry eight touchdowns in 27 red zone trips – but the Tigers have also given up 14 field goals in that range, more than any other team in the country. It’s a longshot play, but we like Georgia to open the scoring with three points.
If past history is any indication, the Bulldogs are well-positioned to break this one open in the second quarter. Georgia is averaging a whopping 17.3 second-quarter points per game at home against FBS opponents in 2018, the fifth-best home scoring rate in the country. On the flip side, only 11 Division I schools average fewer second-quarter points on the road vs. FBS foes than the Tigers (3.0). Even if Auburn manages to keep this one close in the first quarter, there’s a good chance that Georgia pulls away prior to the halftime break, making it a solid choice to cover the first-half spread.
Oddsmakers believe the Bulldogs are an even-money bet to get to the 35-point mark, setting their team total at 34.5. And yet, while bettors could opt for the -120 payout on the over, there’s an even better profit path if you believe Georgia will go over the number. And there’s plenty of evidence to suggest the Bulldogs have a chance: they’re averaging nearly 43 points per game at home against Division I foes, and have broken the 35-point barrier in five of their past seven conference games. Take Georgia to win the race to 35 points; if they get there, they’ll almost certainly do it before Auburn does.
Under trends abound between these teams, both in their head-to-head matchup and in general. Auburn has cashed the under 19 times with one push in its previous 27 games against teams with winning records, and is 10-3 to the under in its past 13 games overall. Georgia does boast some strong recent over trends – having gone 6-1-1 ATS against teams over .500 – but is a sparkling 19-6-1 in favor of the under in its previous 26 games at Sanford Stadium. The teams have also gone under in four of their last five meetings, so we recommend going below the number in this one.
Georgia is looking to stake its claim to a CFP spot – and to do that, it’ll need a convincing win. Fortunately for Bulldogs fans and bettors, this team has been a traditionally strong cover option against elite opponents, having gone 8-2 ATS in its previous 10 games against teams above .500 while covering six of their past seven home contests vs. teams with winning home records. Contrast that with Auburn, which has gone just 2-6 ATS in its last eight meetings with teams above .500, and it’s clear that the Bulldogs are the superior cover option in what is a must-win game for them.